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View Full Version : Crude oil prices



TheGhostInTheMachine
05-01-2008, 09:38 AM
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080501/oil_prices.html?.v=11

Another point on why current gas prices are BS.

random_hero
05-01-2008, 09:43 AM
$3.62 a gallon? I wish, its $3.85 in Buffalo

oh well.

JonsZX2SR
05-01-2008, 09:46 AM
Actually the response of oil prices to the dollars value vs. other currencies supports high crude oil and therefore higher fuel prices.

The argument that oils imports should be cheap regardless of the valuation of the dollar vs. other currencies is BS. Ifv the value of the dollar is half what it used to be and other currencies remain strong the price of imported oil should double. Clear and simple.

On another note, some innovative students at UCF are making their own biodiesel. (There is a local group in CT doing the same...)

http://www.wesh.com/automotive/16093985/detail.html

I'm thinking of setting up a rig to brew fuel in my garage and pick up a used diesel vehicle...

Whats next ?? European Ford Duratorq turbo-diesel in a ZX2 ??

SoCalZX2
05-01-2008, 09:47 AM
Some places topped over 4/gal in san diego. My dad paid 4.03/gal for regular to fill up his 2004 Dodge ram 1500 with a hemi... YIKES

KRUX
05-01-2008, 11:01 AM
Yikes for over 4 dollars a gallon. i paid 3.50 today for a gallon of gas.

PHeller
05-01-2008, 12:00 PM
Crude oils prices are the product of supply and demand, and we can't ever get our fill, so they just jack the prices... I would imagine that eventually, when people start slowing down on fuel consumption in the US, prices will plateau.

I supsect this will occur around the time when alternative fuels start to gain popularity and become less expensive, and oil producers will be forced to lower prices to stay competitive. Who knows, maybe we'll even see what happened in the 80's. They saw we were getting interested else-where, and the prices dropped through the floor.

TheGhostInTheMachine
05-01-2008, 12:19 PM
I'm not too up to date on what happened in the 80's.

PHeller
05-01-2008, 12:31 PM
I'm not either, but I'll summarize my possibly flawwed information:

1) OPEC cut supply (or just didnt have it), jacking prices and making big lines.

2) Researchers start looking into synthetic crude oil from coal. Costs are high, but demand would be met.

3) Crude oil supplies return, dropping prices again.

4) Synthetic oil gets nixxed.

david gettle
05-01-2008, 01:10 PM
I remember gasoline at $0.75/gallon.

FatTonyZx2ner
05-01-2008, 01:24 PM
http://www.energybulletin.net/13199.html


hmm, each troop overseas averages around 9 gallons a day. lets make it a real political discussion

zxtwou2
05-01-2008, 09:52 PM
I remember gasoline at $0.75/gallon.

and when compared to the cost of other products you could buy when gasoline was that price, i'm sure you'll see gasoline is right where it should be now if it followed the same inflation trends. we've been paying twice as LESS as we should have...based on inflation trends...for the last decade. people had it just as hard with the price of gasoline from the 20's til the 80's...then the price steadied out while everything else in the world went up. we're only bitching now because it's raising back up so fast.

SoCalZX2
05-01-2008, 10:31 PM
we're only bitching now because it's raising back up so fast.

That couple with the fact that most americans don't know how to live within or below their means makes it someone elses fault.

Do I like paying 4/gal? Nope, but I have no financial woes because of it either.

phosphite
05-02-2008, 07:44 AM
Read this article, puts it into perspective of why U.S. gas is so cheap.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/news/international/usgas_price/?postversion=2008050109

yellow2000S/R
05-02-2008, 09:04 AM
My mom just paid $3.52 and when she pulled out from the station they had changed the price while she was pumping. They dropped it to $3.42.

She's pissed LOL.

capitalcrew
05-02-2008, 10:23 AM
Lmfao. Owned.

5spdzx2
05-02-2008, 08:59 PM
Im just wondering why Iraq pumped the most oil in history a couple weeks ago and we pay more...anyone care to explain that?

RedRacer99
05-02-2008, 11:53 PM
shit > us dollar value

JonsZX2SR
05-03-2008, 07:31 AM
Im just wondering why Iraq pumped the most oil in history a couple weeks ago and we pay more...anyone care to explain that?

1. US dollar is worth about 62% of what it was in the past raising oil prices about +61% (= 1.00/0.62) without other factors.

2. Lower production from other sources offsets greater Iraqi production.

3. Higher demand by other buyers (China for example) drives prices up. If someone else is willing to pay more, they get the oil, unless you are willing to pay more.

...all things considered, it is not surprising oil prices have more than doubled without invoking any conspiracy theories. Considering Europeans pay the equivalent of $8-9 per gallon of fuel (even with a stronger euro) fuel prices are not unreasonable.

What has everyone confused is that low prices two years ago were unrealistic. There more credibility in believing a conspiracy about the Bush administratiuon keeping prices low to keep the Republicans in favor than conspiracy theories being the cause of high fuel costs.

Increases in fuel costs are the result of keeping fuel costs unsubstainably low in the past. Now that our economy cannot afford to support those low prices AND the dollar being devalued, fuel prices must rise.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 10:02 AM
Before, you could try to strech a dollar bill and go a long ways, now you pretty much have to strech $5 to get anything in life. Fuel prices are going up, but housing prices are going down. It works out. Just find a local job, even if it pays less you will end up with more money in the end for not driving as far as you do, and thats good in EPA eyes.

PHeller
05-03-2008, 10:34 AM
I just wrote a huge response...and then was required to log in, and something got messed up...and i lost my huge response.

Probably a good thing.

Anyway, a local job would be nice, unfortunately, I've got all of 7-10 places of employment in my current town, 5 of which pay under $8 an hour, one is a factory that doesn't have any employees, and the other two are a GSK (pharmaceuticals) and an insurance company that supposedly is really crappy to work for.

We need better regional planning that organizes residential development in relation to places of employment. For example, you can't construct a 250 home development unless there are 500 open positions within 1-2 miles of that development.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 10:41 AM
There should be 1 position in town for each person that lives in that town.

PHeller
05-03-2008, 10:50 AM
For the longest time, it was thought that socially we couldn't do that, because industry was dirty and people didn't like living right next to a factory.

However, with our highly trained work force, it would be possible to make highly efficient communities centered around high-tech jobs.

Unfortunately, because of bad regional planning, we have highly paid, highly trained work forces that instead of buying a home 2-5 minutes away from work, they would prefer to live in the country, an hour away from work. This comes from my idea of "The Old American Dream" and that American's can't stand living too close to one another, and require space, a back yard, an SUV, a pool, and a wasteful existence.

As gas prices increase, this "Old American Dream" will die, and people will understand the need to be more efficient, and as result, live closer to the workplace.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 10:55 AM
And America will look like Hong Kong.

zxtwou2
05-03-2008, 11:01 AM
better than having massive urban sprawl. i'd love to live in a sky city..a proposed sky city will be going up in japan, soon.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 11:08 AM
+ Suicide rates

JonsZX2SR
05-03-2008, 11:13 AM
There should be 1 position in town for each person that lives in that town.

Sounds like socialism... so what if that job just paid minimum wage ???

SoCalZX2
05-03-2008, 11:19 AM
Wait, so because I prefer to live in a home and not in a condo or sky scraper and my wife drives a smaller SUV and we live 20min from my work I'm living a wasteful existence?

Dude, just move out of the country... give those of us that want it more space.

I don't have to live ontop of my neighbor to know them and enjoy their company. I also don't need some 4000sqft home though either.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 11:28 AM
I don't mind minimum wage if I can ride my bike to work and housing was cheap. As long as I can pay all my bills with some breathing room its all good.

SoCalZX2
05-03-2008, 11:34 AM
I don't know your current situation... but one thing most americans cant really fathom... is living without debt (save for a mortgage, which is why a lot of people live farther from work).

I make 42931 and my wife barely made 14k last year. Thats 56k GROSS. I live in San Diego on that, and paid 17k towards debt last year (we're trying to pay if all off). If Americans in general could live within or below their means instead of borrowing to buy everything so they get it now... they'd realize they could live on a lot less income then they thought.

It will never be "better" when you make more income if you just spend more. It's call being broke at a higher level.

david gettle
05-03-2008, 12:27 PM
and when compared to the cost of other products you could buy when gasoline was that price, i'm sure you'll see gasoline is right where it should be now if it followed the same inflation trends. we've been paying twice as LESS as we should have...based on inflation trends...for the last decade. people had it just as hard with the price of gasoline from the 20's til the 80's...then the price steadied out while everything else in the world went up. we're only bitching now because it's raising back up so fast.

Actually, no, gas has gone up more than everything else, 1974, gasoline was $0.75/gal at the end of 1975 gas was about $1.60 and has continued to climb steadily untill about two years ago. Some items have dropped (like computers) the 2Mhz C64 was nearly $2,000.00 in 1980, now you can buy a Acer laptop for under $600.00.

ChillinZX
05-03-2008, 12:40 PM
"mo money mo problems" I used to make 60G's in a machine shop, paid off all my debt, all my cars. Then a baby was on the way so I moved back closer to family so they can babysit for free and I took a stressless job working less hours for 1/2 of what I used to make. I think my decision was worth it. All I have to do is pay a $600/month mortgage, and a $400 car payment (just bought a few months ago). I only work 5 minutes a way so gas fillup is like, once a month.

zxtwou2
05-03-2008, 12:53 PM
Actually, no, gas has gone up more than everything else, 1974, gasoline was $0.75/gal at the end of 1975 gas was about $1.60 and has continued to climb steadily untill about two years ago. Some items have dropped (like computers) the 2Mhz C64 was nearly $2,000.00 in 1980, now you can buy a Acer laptop for under $600.00.

really? so the fact in today's dollars, we'd be paying the EXACT same right now for a loaf of bread? or a gallon of milk? technology isn't something you can base inflation trends on, because as technology moves forward, it becomes cheaper. gasoline is still the same old gasoline...sure there are a few additives now, and no lead..etc...but it's not like computers, that have made MASSIVE breakthroughs since 1980. it's apples and oranges. this goes to prove my case...the red line is what the price of gas would be in today's dollars. the blue line is actual dollars. since a dollar doesn't go as far today as it did in 1919, the red line shows how we've been paying MUCH LESS for gasoline in the last 2 decades than we should have based on inflation trends.

what we are paying now...compared to the value of a dollar...is what we were paying in 1980.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/fsheets/gifs/1-gas-ann.gif

SoCalZX2
05-03-2008, 12:58 PM
I didn't even start paying near 2/gal until after I was out of HS and that was 10yr ago. I live in San Diego btw, and gas is just south of 4/gal for regular.

JonsZX2SR
05-03-2008, 01:53 PM
Actually, no, gas has gone up more than everything else, 1974, gasoline was $0.75/gal at the end of 1975 gas was about $1.60 and has continued to climb steadily untill about two years ago. Some items have dropped (like computers) the 2Mhz C64 was nearly $2,000.00 in 1980, now you can buy a Acer laptop for under $600.00.

The logical flaw in your argument is that the cost of technology, in this case the processing power per kByte of information, has been dropping over the past 40 years. at the same time the cost of searching for, producing and refining petroleum has been increasing. It isn't an apples to apples comparison.

You need to compare the price of gasoline with commosities, rather than technological goods where the technology and the cost of technology decrease with each generation.

For example, past prices of gold were approximately $41 (1971) $160 (1974) and $127 (1976). Gold is currently at $858.

So the increase from 1974 to the present has been 858/160 = 5.36

Using the $0.75 price of gsoline in 1974 (which you provided) $0.75 * 5.36 = $3.80 which isn't far from the national average.

Depending on which year you use the exact ratio may be higher or lower. If you use $0.35 for 1971 you get $0.29 * 41 / 858 = $6.08.

If you averge out the trends for most commodities over 5 year periods, you'll find the price of gasoline in adjusted dollars has been pretty much constant.

RedRacer99
05-03-2008, 03:26 PM
i remember after 9/11, day of or after, was with my mom in my old truck and seeing gas at 1.8x. that was a big deal then.. i agree with you guys saying we've been taking advantage of everything but they should have still done it steadily, not all at once.

PHeller
05-03-2008, 04:29 PM
Sounds like socialism... so what if that job just paid minimum wage ???

Well its either 1 position for every person, at variable wages, or our current case of a town of a few thousand that has 800 employment positions within 20 miles, and the rest just sit around and suck off welfare.

If people could walk to work everyday they'd have no excuse not to work. If they didn't work, that'd provide jobs for people who wanted more money.

Socialism is forcing everyone to make the same wage rate and live in the same style of home, I'm not promoting that. All I'm saying is that our current sprawl is putting us increasing further away from the workplace, and it doesn't matter if your at the bottom or the top of the pay scale.


Wait, so because I prefer to live in a home and not in a condo or sky scraper and my wife drives a smaller SUV and we live 20min from my work I'm living a wasteful existence?

Dude, just move out of the country... give those of us that want it more space.

I don't have to live ontop of my neighbor to know them and enjoy their company. I also don't need some 4000sqft home though either.

I'm not saying you have to live in a tower, but most of new communities in the US have been built with lower and lower densities for the last 20 years. If go back and look at the small towns and high density building of the early 1900's, we see some of the most desirable living condition left today. Small, tight knit communities, houses right next to each other, everyone with a small but enjoyable yard, a small 1 car garage, and on street parking. This was a great way to live in an era when almost everyone walked to rode a trolley to work. The only people who lived in the country were either farmers, associated with farmers, or owners of farms with paid workers.

Now, we build developments in and amongst those farmers, because people feel they need space.

SoCalZX2
05-03-2008, 05:43 PM
I don't mind on the street parking, but I wont buy a home w/o a 2 car garage lol.

Seriously, I don't know where you live, but in San Diego, (east county) there are nothing but housing communities... Not a lot of lavish homes that are all over 3k sqft. Most of them are between 1300-2000 max. So you don't have to go back to the early 1900's when population was really sparce (lol didn't have space back then?).

People should have the right to live how they want to. Not be forced into econobox homes / cars. I don't get the purpose of trying to live like we lived 2-3 generations ago. It makes no sense to me.

PHeller
05-03-2008, 06:04 PM
I'm not saying you should be forced to live anyway you don't want to, however, as our nation develops, we are going to need new progressive ideas on better ways of planning on regional development. Current forms of 1-per-car commutes are just not going to work effectively to beat other countries economically, we spend too much time and money building roadways that don't make us get to work any faster, and not enough on building communities that make us more efficient.

It doesn't much matter though, because with rising gas prices, many people will be forced to live within their means and rid themselves of unnecessary gas guzzlers and inefficient daily commutes. The market will search for better and cheaper ways.

JonsZX2SR
05-03-2008, 08:48 PM
If the town doesn't have the level of economic activity to support the jobs it isn't going to happen. There is only so much work that can be provided by McD's, Wal-Mart, pumping gas and blacktopping everyone's driveways...

a high tech company might move there, but unless the locals have the prerequisite skills, it will only attract other workers and leave the locals unemployed. A military base might help some, but those are being consolidated and closed. A car company might try to build a non-union plant there at prevailing local wages and piss off the UAW.

A more realistic solution might be for the local population to shrink to fit the number of available jobs. It's a tough suggestion and people don't like hearing, but it happens. if you are going to try to pass a law requiring jobs for all citizens, someone else might try to pass a law requiring unemployed citizens to look for work elsewhere.

The best solution is to encourage the kids to get educations and follow where the jobs lead.

RedRacer99
05-04-2008, 12:05 AM
would abolishing unions help solve problems? too many people bitch about pay and benefits. i work at a liquor store, i know its not a skilled job so i don't expect over 10/hr, but when i graduate with my nursing degree, i'll expect quite a bit more pay because it is a skilled job. people don't seem to grasp the concept that education = more money, generally. it is a sad realization however that some places overseas offer college for free or low costs, and we jack up our tuitions so the select few can attend. we have the lowest education standards but the highest prices... no wonder high school is churning out so many unintelligent beings. the american public (not you guys specifically, just generalizing) is ignorant but can you blame them? they only know what is fed to them by tv and other the news media. when's the last time you've seen a happy story on the news? it's all negative media anymore and i'm, honestly, getting sick of it.

SoCalZX2
05-04-2008, 07:20 AM
Abolishing unions would work only because they are no longer working the way they were designed to work. They keep poor workers in higher paying jobs because of the threat to the company if the union strikes.

The idea of a Union is good, but much like Gov't programs designed to help people of lesser financial means survive, it's just poor execution. Too many lazy people taking advantage of the system and forcing themselves into poverty. Or in the case of Unions, too many people taking advantage of the system and getting paied 3-5x what their worth.

RedRacer99
05-04-2008, 08:59 AM
yep.. to be honest, i'd say screw it. because americans don't realize how competitives jobs truly are. goes back to arrogance again... illegal aliens and foreigners and just people in general ARE willing to do the same job for less money so it should be no surprise that jobs are being taken by foreigners. wow, we are wayyy off topic.

SoCalZX2
05-04-2008, 09:08 AM
lol that happens a lot in this section.

JonsZX2SR
05-05-2008, 11:44 AM
$5 per gallon fuel is on the way...

-> $5/gal gasoline (http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/news/economy/gas_poll/index.htm?postversion=2008050513)

RedRacer99
05-05-2008, 05:41 PM
live below your means, people, live below your means.... i'm trying like hell to get my mom away from the suv craze but her excuse is its a pain to step up and out of a car, but cars like the new avenger or whatever still sit pretty high so i don't see what her damned problem is...